The sim Bulls' pass defense has been extremely flimsy all year, and now they're going up against the sim Bearcats, who can throw the ball on anyone. Yeah, this isn't going to end well.

FINAL SCORE: CINCINNATI 34, USF 17

The game was actually low-scoring and close for awhile. It was 3-3 midway through the second quarter when Zach Collaros got rolling, completing a pass to Ben Guidugli for 22 yards, another to D.J. Woods for 23, and finally one to Armon Binns for a 25-yard touchdown to give the Bearcats a 10-3 lead. The Bulls responded, but made a very questionable decision late in the half, foregoing a 4th and 1 at the Cincinnati 36 with about a minute to go before halftime. Eric Schwartz (who won the kicking battle in the game) ended up missing a 53-yard field goal and the half ended 10-3.

The two teams traded scores on their opening possessions of the third quarter. (USF went for it on a 4th and 9 from the Bearcats 40, and B.J. Daniels hit Sterling Griffin for 35 yards. Remember, everyone on both teams is healthy in all these simulations because I FUBARed the sim dynasty.) Then the Bulls took advantage of a Keith McCaskill fumble recovery deep in Cincinnati territory. Mo Plancher ran for a 9-yard touchdown to tie the game at 17.

But USF wouldn't score again. Jake Rogers kicked a field goal on the Bearcats' ensuing possession to give them the lead back, 20-17. Then Isaiah Pead ran for a back-breaking 46-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter, forcing the Bulls into comeback mode. USF drove to the Cincinnati 24, but Daniels was intercepted by Pat Lambert and the Bearcats drove down for the clinching score from Pead, helped along by a 38-yard pass from Collaros to Vidal Hazelton (again, everyone's healthy).

On the day, Collaros completed 31 of 50 passes for 396 yards and three touchdowns. Binns, Hazelton, and Woods all went over 75 yards receiving, and Guidugli had another 59. Isaiah Pead also ran 107 yards on only 15 carries. Overall, Cincinnati gained 541 yards, the second week in a row the sim Bulls have given up 500+. But unlike last week, the damage was done in the flow of the game, and not in garbage time.

Daniels struggled, completing just 18-for-45 with two interceptions. He was also sacked four times. Mo Plancher was once again a workhorse, getting a ridiculous 35 carries and gaining 143 yards with two TDs.

The sim Bulls drop to 4-3 on the season, and 1-2 in conference play. They now get a Saturday off before Rutgers pays a Wednesday night visit.

I made a pretty big mistake in my simulated dynasty. When the CPU Bulls lost to Syracuse last week I turned the PS3 off before I saved the season progress and rolled forward to the next week. No problem, right? Just have the computer sim the game again. Unfortunately, USF won the "rematch" and CPU B.J. Daniels dislocated his elbow in the process. He was going to be out for two months, and that time the game autosaved so there was no going back.

That means I had to abandon the actual season, and will now just sim exhibition games. That means fully healthy rosters and no injuries carrying over. Welcome back to the lineup, A.J. Love!

On to the game, and in a result that was just as surprising to me as the Syracuse game...

FINAL SCORE: USF 35, WEST VIRGINIA 30

When you look at the final stats, you'd have to think that the Mountaineers should have won. They outgained USF by over 200 yards (528-319), won the time of possession battle, got over 400 yards passing out of Geno Smith, knocked Mo Plancher out of the game, and held Demetris Murray to only 44 rushing yards. How the hell did they lose?

They lost because of special teams. Terrence Mitchell ran a kickoff back for a touchdown. Dede Lattimore blocked a punt and Scott Kozlowski foolishly recovered it just outside his own goal line, leading to an easy USF touchdown. And Tyler Bitancurt jaked an extra point and also missed a field goal.

Also all of that yardage advantage was a result of garbage time. The Bulls had a 35-9 lead early in the fourth quarter and completely let off the gas, letting West Virginia drive down the field for three touchdowns while the USF offense failed to get a single first down in the final period. The Mountaineers even got the ball back again with 22 seconds left and had a fleeting chance to win the game, but couldn't make it all 80 yards to the end zone.

B.J. Daniels was 20-for-39 for 232 yards and four touchdowns. (If you've ever played NCAA 11, you know that the CPU Mountaineers are outrageously aggressive on defense, so a lot of big plays are available in the passing game.) Even though Murray averaged less than two yards per carry, he did catch two TD passes. On the other side, Noel Devine rolled up 193 yards from scrimmage, but his longest run was only 10 yards and he didn't break off a big one until it really didn't matter -- a 28-yard reception on the final play.

This surprising win brings the CPU Bulls to 4-2 on the season and 1-1 in conference play. Next up is a game at Cincinnati.

This one turned into a thriller. And also, this outcome sucked.

FINAL SCORE: SYRACUSE 32, USF 29 (OT)

I mean, Syracuse could actually win the real game, but I doubt it would happen with this much decision-making brain lock from the losing team. If you'd like to know how USF loses to Syracuse in this game, here are some hints:

• 10 trips to the red zone for a total of 14 points.
• 3-for-20(!) on third down.
• Give up over 500 total yards on defense and let the Orange run an astounding 95 plays.
• Throw stupid passes and take killer sacks and penalties in scoring range.
• Alternately, call running plays on third and long that have no chance of picking up the first.
• Get totally stifled on offense and basically not give a shit until roughly the 10:00 mark of the 4th quarter when you're trailing 29-14 and narrowly escaped the kill shot because Syracuse tried to make it a 17-point game by going for two, but missed.
• Pull a Schottenedsall* in overtime, turn into a giant wuss, and completely fail to move the ball, then miss a 48-yard field goal to give the Orange a gift-wrapped chance for victory that even they couldn't turn down.

I finally wised up and decided not to sit there for an hour watching runners plow into the backs of their blockers, or CPU B.J. Daniels not taking off running when he has 30 yards of open field in front of him. I just put the game on super sim and checked the play by play. This is a much better way to do this.

FINAL SCORE: USF 33, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10

The first big play came midway through the first quarter with the Bulls leading 3-0. Michael Lanaris blocked an FAU punt, recovered it, and ran it back to the Owls' 5-yard line. Mo Plancher scored on the next play to make it 10-0 USF, a lead that lasted most of the half.

FAU kicked a field goal at the end of the quarter, and then put together a two-minute drill near halftime to score again. They needed a fake punt conversion to keep the drive alive, but ultimately Jeff Van Camp found Alfred Morris out of the backfield for a 17-yard touchdown with 20 seconds left in the half, somehow tying the game at 10 heading into the break.

USF dominated the second half, though. The only plays Florida Atlantic ran in Bulls territory in the last two quarters were during the last 30 seconds of the game. Up until that last, meaningless drive, the defense allowed only 58 total yards in the second half, with Van Camp completing only 3 of 13 passes and throwing an interception to Jerrell Young. Meanwhile, the Bulls controlled the game on offense, kicking three more field goals and getting a touchdown pass from Daniels to T.J. Knowles, along with a second TD run by Plancher to ice the game late.

Daniels threw for 283 yards and a touchdown, while Plancher had a huge game. He rang up 125 yards and two scores on 30 carries, and also caught four passes for 57 yards. For FAU, Van Camp was only 20-of-49 for 229 yards, and the Owls managed just 73 yards rushing.

The only red flag from the game is that USF made nine trips into the FAU red zone and only managed two touchdowns and four field goals. Even though they won by 23 points, the CPU Bulls left a lot of points on the table in this game. These nagging problems seem to have a way of translating over to the real games, so we'll see if this is going to be another one.

Regardless, the CPU Bulls move to 3-1 and start in on their conference schedule next week, when Syracuse comes to town.

I am really not going to make it to the end of the season watching the CPU simulate all these games. There are things happening on half the plays that I know USF would never do in a real game, and that I would never do if I was actually playing the game myself. B.J. Daniels waiting forever in the pocket when there's room to run, and then getting sacked or throwing the ball away. Backs running TOWARDS TACKLERS when there's a clear running lane to the end zone. Defensive backs getting mixed up and completely forgetting to cover open receivers. Sterling Griffin dropping two long passes in a row. Eric Schwartz missing an extra point and a chip-shot field goal (and it wasn't even from the left hashmark, as Brent Musberger would warn you about).

The CPU had the Bulls play so badly that they could have easily blown this game. And yet...

FINAL SCORE: USF 43, WESTERN KENTUCKY 24

The reason they didn't is because the Hilltoppers made a slew of their own stupid mistakes. USF took the lead for the first time early in the second quarter when Kawaun Jakes ran left and then tried a long option pitch to Bobby Rainey. There was no way the ball was going to get there - it deflected off George Baker, and David Bedford caught it in midair and ran it back for a touchdown to give the Bulls a 17-10 lead.

The Hilltoppers came right back and put another long drive together, getting all the way inside the USF 10. But on 3rd and goal, Jakes floated a quick out to Quinterrance Cooper, and Quenton Washington jumped in front to intercept it and return the ball 99 yards for a touchdown. The defense also basically scored a third touchdown when Sam Barrington recovered a fumble and ran it back inside the WKU 5-yard line.

The Bulls never completely put the game away because of their own ineptitude, especially on pass defense. Jakes is not a strong passer, but in this game he went 26-for-41 for 379 yards, including a touchdown to an unknown receiver (again, Tiburon, you did a horrible job with the rosters) that was the result of blown coverage by Mistral Raymond. Time and time again they converted long third-down situations because the CPU-controlled defense either blitzed DBs or gave up too much cushion, or just plain got confused. They've now given up 756 yards passing in their last two games, and I have a feeling this will bite them later in the virtual season.

Overall the Hilltoppers outgained the Bulls 466-360, had more first downs, and went 8-for-15 on third down. Meanwhile, USF runners didn't run through holes, receivers dropped passes, cornerbacks left receivers alone to run routes past the first-down marker, and strange plays were called on both sides of the ball. Possibly the only reason WKU lost the game was because of their four turnovers to USF's one. Again, this won't happen in real life, and I'm pretty sure I would have mulched the Hilltoppers if I was piloting the Bulls in this simulation.

A thoroughly unsatisfying win to watch, but the virtual Bulls move to 2-1 and look forward to an in-state matchup with Florida Atlantic next Saturday.

Time to fire up the PlayStation 3 and see what NCAA Football 11 says will happen when the Bulls and Gators face off on Saturday. As you'll recall, A.J. Love is out for most of the season with an arm injury, and he was not in the lineup.

Not that it really mattered.

FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 41, USF 17

The Gators took the opening kick right down the field to the Bulls' 6, but then had a touchdown called back by a holding penalty. Then Caleb Sturgis hooked a 36-yard field goal.

After a punt, Florida drove the field again and this time got in the end zone for a 7-0 lead. USF responded with a 15-play, 80-yard drive that included four third-down conversions, and finished it with a 3-yard pass from B.J. Daniels to Dontavia Bogan to tie the game.

Then came two pivotal plays. Will Demps fumbled the ensuing kickoff, but Florida recovered. After a sack of John Brantley, the Gators were looking at 3rd and 15. But Quenton Washington blew his coverage on Deonte Thompson and Brantley hit him for a 59-yard gain. (The snap was low and it looked like Washington went into run contain, thinking Brantley would abort the play, instead of staying with his man.) A couple plays later, Washington missed a tackle on Justin Williams that let him score a touchdown.

Continue reading this post »

I set up an NCAA Football 11 dynasty for USF and then got out of the way to let the computer handle the season. (I went ahead and made everyone healthy again because there was no way to remove every player on every team who is hurt to start the season. So that means A.J. Love, Sterling Griffin, and Mark Popek are all in.) Every week I'll "play" the game and then post a recap.

First up, the Bulls played "FCS West" because I didn't change them to "FCS East" before I started the season. It doesn't really matter, though, they're all pretty much the same.

FINAL SCORE - USF 37, STONY BROOK STAND-IN TEAM 13

The game wasn't really as close as the score indicated. Stony Brook/FCS West got 10 of their 13 points off two turnovers - a deflected B.J. Daniels pass that was intercepted in USF territory, and a fumble return for a touchdown. Actually the Bulls were -4 in turnovers, giving it up four times while FCS West/Stony Brook was turnover-free.

Mo Plancher had a huge game, carrying 25 times for 204 yards and three touchdowns, including this 70-yard run on the second play of the game. However, he did lose two fumbles, including the one returned for a score.

Because of all the turnovers and some weird AI-influenced decision making, Stony Brook/FCS West was actually in the game in the third quarter. But down 27-13, they stalled in the USF red zone and then yanked a 28-yard field goal. On their next possession, they tried an ill-advised puntrooskie and failed miserably.

B.J. Daniels was 22-for-29 for 255 yards and two touchdowns, with Dontavia Bogan racking up 8 for 128 and a long touchdown right before halftime. The defense managed 14 tackles for loss, led by four from Keith McCaskill. Overall USF outgained FCS West/Stony Brook 471-236 and limited them to only six yards rushing.

One dim note - A.J. Love tore his pectoral and is out for 12 weeks. He won't be back until the Miami game.

Here's Bogan's touchdown and a monstrous sack by Terrell McClain that briefly knocked the Stony Brook/FCS West quarterback out of the game.

I know a lot of people have been visiting this blog after doing a Google search for NCAA Football 11 rosters. There was a USF roster for PS3 posted here a few weeks ago that was built using EA's TeamBuilder site, but all that did was put names on all the players. Since then I've gone back and revised some of the absolutely dreadful ratings that individual players were given. I won't get into any of the obvious conspiracy theories about where the game was produced and who did the player ratings, but I think we can all agree that USF has more talent on its team than schools like Marshall, SMU, or Washington State.

HERE IS OUR UPDATED TEAMBUILDER ROSTER. This is for PlayStation 3 users - I don't know if the roster will work if you have an Xbox 360.

The game lets you import TeamBuilder rosters into a dynasty, which is a major time saver. However, if you're willing to take the large amount of time to manually adjust the ratings of the original team, you'll get more customization down the line. TeamBuilder doesn't let you officially change the positions of players, or make any more ratings changes. So for example, you can play Evan Landi at quarterback on your depth chart and move Craig Marshall to defensive end where he belongs, but they won't be actually listed at those positions on your overall roster.

Here's how I went about fixing the USF roster. First, I took all the returning players and translated their ratings over from NCAA Football 10. A lot of players mysteriously got worse from last year's game to this year's game, which is ridiculous since they're the same players, and it doesn't look like there were any drastic system-wide player attribute changes. For example, B.J. Daniels actually got slower with a weaker arm, and all of the offensive lineman had their blocking ability noticeably weakened. That was all corrected. Most of the new players were rated so low that hardly any college team would keep them on a roster, so I bumped them up to about the level where it would at least make sense to redshirt them. The only exceptions are Terrence Mitchell and Todd Chandler, who were bumped up to about the level that four-star recruits like themselves would enter the game at (generally in the mid-70s).

Instead of the game's C+ overall rating (B- offense, C+ defense), the team is now rated as a B overall (B+ offense, B defense). I might have been a little gung-ho on offense, but the rating makes sense compared to most preseason rankings, which have USF around the 45-50 range. I counted 35 teams in the game still rated higher overall than the revised Bulls, and about a dozen others are roughly equal. Figuring that most of those equal teams (along with a few others with less talent, like Houston) would be placed higher in a real-life ranking because they have more experience and continuity, this new USF team should be pretty accurate.

With the new rankings, the Bulls are still either #4 or #5 overall in the Big East, behind Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Cincinnati, They're even with Rutgers, and somewhat ahead of UConn, Syracuse, and Louisville. Keep in mind the game's ratings are based almost completely on talent, and don't take into account offseason flux like ours, or how certain real-life teams are coached up beyond their skill level - UConn being a perfect example. These shouldn't be confused for an actual preseason ranking or a prediction of how the season will play out.