Bubble Watch Update

Yes! Yesss! Oh, let me taste your tears, Washington! Yummy, you guys!

Thursday's games went pretty well for USF's bubble hopes. Several bubble teams took bad first-round losses, and no potential bid thieves are emerging. Except in the Pac-12, where everyone is a potential bid thief because the entire league sucks.

  • Washington lost in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament to #8 seed Oregon State. They went 14-4 in the Pac-12, but the Pac-12 is crap. They're #10 in conference RPI, behind the Mountain West, Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, and -- seriously -- Conference USA. By the way, the Big East is #2 in this "down year." Stick a fork in the Huskies, they're done.
  • Similarly, Oregon lost in the first round to #6 Colorado. The Ducks were getting some late at-large buzz, but this will kill it.
  • Northwestern lost to #10 seed Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. It's hard not to feel for Northwestern -- probably the only major school with a leaner basketball history than us -- but their at-large hopes just went from slim to none.
  • Mississippi State lost to #11 seed Georgia, continuing a bad late-season slide.
  • Southern Miss survived an upset bid, and their opponent in the C-USA semifinals (Marshall) needed three overtimes to beat Tulsa. This league is set up nicely for a USM-Memphis final, which would guarantee no bid thievery.
  • All the favorites won in the Mountain West. San Diego State had to survive an upset bid from Boise State. All four of those teams, including Colorado State, are locks at this point. So no danger here.
  • Long Beach State won its first round tournament game. Let's hope they either win the auto-bid, or crash in the semi-finals.

And now, what didn't go so well:

  • Texas won. Ugh. They're probably pretty safe now. Let's hope Missouri disposes of them.
  • Arizona beat UCLA in the Pac-12 quarters, and now plays the aforementioned Oregon State in the semis. Arizona's resume is very lean -- leaner than Washington's -- but a run to the conference tourney final could get them some late attention in a year where the prognosticators are struggling to find worthy bubble teams. A loss to Oregon State in the semifinals would be nice.
  • Cal survived against Stanford, but with Washington and Oregon both losing that's not so bad. There's no way the Pac-12 is a one-bid league, as much as it deserves to be. With that being said, make sure to root for Cal over the Buffaloes today. They seem to have a spot locked up no matter what.
  • NC State and Miami won their Kobayashi Maru first-round games with bad Boston College and Georgia Tech teams. Miami-GT was close for awhile, though.
  • UCF beat UAB, but UCF seems barely out of the autobid-or-bust pool at this point.
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