Some Cold Water For USF Basketball (But Just A Little Bit)

Yes, it's great to see USF basketball having some Big East success, since it hasn't come around that often. And they're in good shape to complete #TheQuestFor16. We have a KenPom subscription, and according to Pomeroy's data the Bulls are about a 70% favorite to win at least 16 games, and the same favorite to go at least 9-9 in Big East play (which makes sense since all remaining games on the schedule are in conference).

But let's calm down a little bit with the 20 wins and the bubble talk, shall we?

Don't forget USF has three stinky losses on their resume -- at Auburn, and Old Dominion and Penn State in the Hall of Fame tournament. All three of those teams clock in with KenPom ratings in the triple digits. On the flip side, the Bulls have just one top-50 win so far, against Seton Hall. Because of those bad losses, and the fact that they already have eight of them, USF is going to need something like 19 or 20 wins to get themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is very similar to two years ago, when they hit 20 wins and still didn't come that close to making the field.

Also, their Big East schedule is heavily backloaded. They have the game at Marquette tomorrow night, a visit to Georgetown next week, and then four straight KenPom top 50 teams to end the regular season -- at Syracuse, Cincinnati, at Louisville, and West Virginia. So far USF has made a lot of hay against their peers and teams that are worse than they are. But things are going to get tougher down the stretch.

This season is shaping up as a nice surprise and it's trending towards a trip to one postseason tournament or another. (Collin is probably pre-mourning the financial pain of a Bern's bet he made before conference play began, which he's well on his way to losing.) Let's let the surprise keep unfolding and try not to raise our expectations or dream too big at this point in the season.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Voodoo Five

You must be a member of Voodoo Five to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Voodoo Five. You should read them.

Join Voodoo Five

You must be a member of Voodoo Five to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Voodoo Five. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker