Why We Should All Cheer for Baylor and... Wait for it... Ken Starr!
by mpetty99 on Sep 8, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
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PrintWe all owe the Baylor Bears and *gasp!* Ken Starr a debt of gratitude. I've read an awful lot of expansion news over the past year and a half, and in everything I've read South Florida isn't mentioned (Sean Keeley's article today at TNIAAM is the exception, and I'm pretty sure he's being sarcastic, again). Why is this? Let's look at the likely scenarios after the jump:
Big XIIish collapse: This is going to happen, and it will happen first. Texas A&M (even with the pending litigation) is going to leave for the SEC. When that happens, the rumors are that at least Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will leave, probably for the PAC 12/14/16. The remaining scenarios are more speculative, but my feeling is that Texas goes independent and leaves everyone else in the lurch so they can cash in on The Longhorn Network.
SEC expansion: After Texas A&M joins, the SEC will look to add at least one more member. Virginia Tech, Missouri, and West Virginia all fit the profile of the SEC. If Missouri joins, there will probably be no further problems for the BEast, at least immediately. However, the biggest threat to South Florida is if WVU leaves, and recent rumors have that school as the front-runner for number 14. The ACC will then feel the need to expand (this will also happen if VaTech bolts for the SEC instead of WVU).
BIG 10/12/14 expansion: After the SEC has its way with the BEast, the BIG 10/12/14 will expand to at least 12 teams. Notre Dame will not join a conference, leaving Syracuse, Rutgers and Pittsburgh as the likely front-runners. I would guess Syracuse and Rutgers would join.
ACC expansion: The ACC will be just proactive as the last go-round that brought USF to the BEast, though the get the last choice because no one will leave the BEast for the ACC if the BIG 10/12/14 hasn't made their move yet. This means the ACC will look to add a combination of Syracuse, UCONN, Rutgers and Pittsburgh (two of whoever's left after the BIG 10/12/14 expansion). Any or all of these, in conjunction with the loss of WVU, means the BEast will be on its last legs.
Conclusion: no one wants USF in this round of expansion, since the SEC already has UF (they own the Tampa market just as much as USF) and the ACC will still have both Miami and FSU. The BEast will dissolve with the loss of any combination of WVU, PITT, Rutgers, 'Cuse and UCONN, leaving Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida and TCU to pick up the pieces. The resulting watered-down league (including some amalgamation of Houston, KState, UK, Baylor, Missouri, etc...) would be competitive, but probably not garner enough support to keep AQ status during the next BCS negotiations.
So thank you, Ken Starr. Keep fighting the good fight.
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*Correction
Sean Keeley’s article was yesterday: http://www.nunesmagician.com/2011/9/7/2410917/conference-expansion-oliver-luck-is-apparently-the-big-east
Go Bulls!
The X factor in all this...
…is how Texas and ESPN are going to react to the Big XII imploding all around them.
The latest round of expansion mania, even going back to Nebraska and Colorado’s moves, is all a reaction to the LHN. Apparently the concept isn’t as popular with other universities as ESPN and Texas were projecting. Surprisingly, nobody wants to be the Washington Generals.
Texas and ESPN have to keep the Big XII together to make the Longhorn Network viable. But a Big XII where the LHN exists is an arrangement that benefits only Texas. The question is, will Texas:
- admit the Longhorn Network is a stupid idea and pull the plug on it
- form a neo-Southwest Conference out of Texas schools willing to go along with this plan,
- join the Pac-10, SEC, ACC, or Big Ten
I don’t think any of these are good options for the Longhorn Network and its university. But it’s nice to see conference realignment screwing one of the blueblood schools for once, even if they’re being screwed by their own actions.
Editor, Voodoo Five, South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
The Toughest Blog in America
Exactly right.
Texas (the whole state, not just UT) does whatever the heck it wants, always. Just ask Mexico. There’s no telling what they’ll do. The Big XIIish will stay together in some form if Texas wants it to happen. If not… Realignmentageddon, phase III!
Go Bulls!
The Big XIIish will stay together in some form if Texas wants it to happen
I dunno about that. They can’t make other schools stay in their league or join it. The responses, from A&M down to Baylor, are proof. The problem is, Texas is too arrogant and myopic to see the situation for what it is. I suspect they will continue to force the Longhorn Network on the world, even if it means they have to play in a conference of Rice, Houston, SMU, UTEP, North Texas, Texas State, and UTSA.
Editor, Voodoo Five, South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
The Toughest Blog in America
It wouldn't need one.
If Texas really goes this route and builds a Texas conference of schools with one-tenth their resources, they’d pile up enough wins to easily get an at-large bid any year they deserve it. Especially since the death of the Big XII would mean one more at-large bid to be had. They’d be what Memphis is to college basketball; a difficult national non-conference schedule, with conference play something of an afterthought.
Editor, Voodoo Five, South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
The Toughest Blog in America
Part of me thinks Texas will try to forge a Southwest Conference made up of smaller programs
Texas has part of the Conference USA to pick and choose – Rice, Houston, SMU – and perhaps New Mexico or Tulane to round out the victims list. They could try to keep part of the Big 12 from bolting (considering how eager some of them are to vamoose the second TAMU goes SEC, that’s unlikely). But I doubt it will resolve everyone’s problems.
Time to shamelessly plug my book and short story!
It's hilarious that that's being floated as a viable plan.
20 years ago, the Southwest Conference chose to go extinct rather than add Tulane, New Mexico, or Tulsa to a core of Rice, TCU, SMU and Houston. Today, that’s exactly what’s being proposed to make the Longhorn Network work. Really illustrates the stupidness of it all.
Editor, Voodoo Five, South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
The Toughest Blog in America
If the Superconference movement gets underway, the real struggle will be between ACC and Big East trying to survive
The Big East has their TV contract that might help (what deal does the ACC have?). It also depends a lot on what happens to Miami. If UM gets hit with the Death Penalty, the ACC will be stuck with a massive gap in national draw. If the SEC tempts away West Virginia from the Big East and/or Florida St. from the ACC, both conferences will fight over each other’s big-name schools (ACC pursuing Syracuse, Rutgers, maybe even UConn and South Florida (yes, to fill the void of either UM or FSU): Big East trying to tempt back Boston College and Virginia Tech, and possibly pursue Georgia Tech and Maryland.)
It all really depends on what happens to the ’Canes.
Time to shamelessly plug my book and short story!
BEast/ACC: Who do you think survives in that fight?
The assumptions I would use are: Miami doesn’t get the death penalty, but something similar to USC’s (NCAA doesn’t have the stomach, IMO), the short-term conference realignment picture will stop at 14 teams (though 16 is probably in the 5-10 year plan), and the SEC and Big 10/12/14 get to pick whoever they want (who would turn them down?).
Also, I hear Marinatto pitching this “TV deal” so much that I’m convinced it’ll be worth far less than he says, since I don’t believe Marinatto has ever told the truth, and I’m convinced he’s delusional. I pray the BEast survives until that deal gets signed, and that it’s huge!
Go Bulls!
Also, anyone arguing that college football is about student athletes ought to be laughed at until they die of shame
This is so clearly about THE MONEY MO MONEY that it’s not a joke.
When are we going to recognize college football (and basketball) as minor league farm systems, and start paying these kids real money instead of “scholarships” that don’t guarantee graduation or can be used as extortion to force these kids to suffer at the whims of the athletic directors and college presidents?
Time to shamelessly plug my book and short story!
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