This looks like the Week of Overconfident Doom. One of the hallmarks of this game is people being outrageously confident in what look like ridiculous lines and putting large sums of fake money on them. And then they all go to crap, like when Wake Forest beat FSU decisively.
Quite a few of those in this week's picks... let's run them down starting with the leader and working our way down. And Ken has also decided this is his all-in week, so make sure you get to the end.
Chas Rich, Pitt Blather:
Taking a quick look at the lines, I was struck by just how many easy wins jumped out at me. Then I stopped to think how much money I would actually want to trust to some of these teams. This is why the people who set the lines are so much smarter than me, and why I don't (as far as anyone knows) wager real money on college football.
Maybe I'm just overthinking this.
$25 WVU -14 vs. Syracuse. Mind you, this one I'll be happy to lose if Syracuse can get the outright win.
$35 Cinci +3 vs. USF. This is essentially a pick-em game. Um, what exactly has USF done in October to even be a pick-em at this point?
$45 Indiana +23.5 vs. Iowa. Indiana is a bad football team. But the only games where they were crushed were Wisconsin and Illinois. Iowa is no where near that good.
$80 Wisconsin -7.5 vs. Michigan State. This almost seems too easy.
$40 Nebraska -25 vs. Minnesota. If it was anyone but Minnesota I would refuse to give this many points.
$25 Mizzou +7 vs. OK St. The more I think about this one, the less I trust it. Was going to pick OK St., but I've become less sure the more I look at how close the losses Mizzou has taken, and that the Oklahoma St. quality wins have not been that impressive.
Scott from Bearcats Blog, enjoying this very unstable UC-USF game no doubt:
I almost wanted to take a bye since I can't make the Memphis bet of the week. What a disappointment. I'll power through.
3 team high point spread parlay: Boise -31, Houston -22.5, Alabama -29 for 50
Rutgers +2 for 50
Illinois -4 for 50. Purdue is awful. Not even Zook can Zook this up.
Wisconsin -7.5 for 50
West Virginia -14 for 25
Wake Forest -3 for 20.
Washington St -3 for 5. Oregon State is replacing Memphis this week.
Kevin of The UConn Blog is taking a bye after last week's carnage.
On to my picks:
$220 on Kansas State -11 over Kansas. That seems like a typo. ECOKAT FOREVER (I still think she is sneaky hot).
$29 on a three-team parlay: Auburn +21 vs. LSU, Utah +3 vs. California, Virginia Tech -21 vs. Boston College
$1 on Rutgers -2 vs. Louisville OH IT BURNS
But wait... Gary notes a mistake in my pick:
I thought Rutgers was +2. Did I read the table wrong? If I did, just put my bet on Rutgers -2.
You're right. Are you kidding me, Rutgers is GETTING two points against Louisville? I should put more fake
money on that. Make mine $27.50 instead of a dollar.
Final score: Louisville 16, Rutgers 14. I could have put a million dollars on that game and it wouldn't have mattered.
More picks after the jump.
Chris Lane, The Nova Blog:
Let's get weird.
No, thank you.
$200 parlay on Rutgers +2, Cincinnati +3 and Oklahoma State -7
$50 on Wisconsin -7.5
WVUIE97, The Smoking Musket, obviously getting tired of a certain Midwestern team's dithering about what conference they will play in:
$1 on WVU (-14) over Cuse
$1 on Clemson (-10.5) over UNC
$248 on Oklahoma St. (-7) over Missouri because FUCK Missouri. Fuck em for making us and the entire CFB nation wait AND/OR taking our SEC slot!!
There, I feel a little better now. Whew.
GarySJ, Voodoo Five:
$100 Nebraska -25 @ Minnesota
$100 Louisiana-Lafayette - 3.5 @WKU
$40 Nebraska-Minnesota over 56.5
$10 Rutgers +2 at Louisville (Obligatory Big East bet)
Andrew Porter, The UConn Blog:
$50 on UCLA - Arizona UNDER 62
$75 on WVU - Syracuse OVER 59
$25 on Buffalo - N Illinois UNDER 62
$75 parlay -- Army +10.5 vs. Vanderbilt, Wisconsin -7.5 over MSU, Navy and East Carolina UNDER 65.
Hoya Suxa, riding high after last night's Big East-destroying win:
After laying low for two weeks in which I did tons of research and consulted important sharps (just kidding, I got drunk while wearing pajamas), I'm back with these can't miss picks.
WAGER ONE: FREE FUCKING MONEY
Oklahoma State covers the seven against Missouri and lines my wallet with sweet green. $75 on the Pokes.
WAGER TWO: MORE FREE FUCKING MONEY
Wake Forest is not terrible and Duke is Duke. $75 on the Deacons to cover. Sports wagering is easy.
WAGER THREE: SO MUCH FREE FUCKING MONEY
Bundling the first two wagers into a $25 parlay. I prefer American currency on my payouts, please.
WAGER FOUR: OH MY GOD I HAVE SO MUCH FREE FUCKING MONEY
Wisconsin will drop hell from the sky to cover the 7.5 against Michigan State. Make me money, Bielema. $25 here.
WAGER FIVE: THEY SAY THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH BUT THERE IS IF YOU BUY IT WITH FREE MONEY
$25 on Rutgers to beat Louisville. I don't even care if this tanks because I'm going to have so much free money.
Even though he can't win the big prize, Toro Grande still wants to make some picks this week:
Glad I'm not the only one that saw the Illinois line. That's a Vegas Hates Money line fo sho.
Illinois -4 over Purdue ALLL IN... or $230. Zooker a.k.a. The White Trooper Taylor has ridic talent on that team, so they can take 100 yards in dumb penalties and still cover that number no problem.
Cinci +3 over USF $10... I have no faith in my alma mater. At all. We have been completely exposed as incapable of consistently stopping the run, and can't make plays in what Mike Lombardi for some reason calls "the red area." Fire up the FailHorn for 2011.
Syracuse +14 over WVU $10... because Marrone with 2TD's at home is a deadly combo. Also Holgo hasn't been tested on the road yet. Let's see what The Dude has.
And now Ken, who has decided to make his big stand this week.
Everything except 2 dollars on Wisconsin -7.5
$1 on WVU -14
$1 on MTSU -6.5 over FAU.
Tune in next week for Ken's inevitable sudden death pick. Should be good.